| A number of studies have attempted to predict future Olympic performances
in athletics and swimming based on trends displayed in previous Olympic
Games. Some have utilised linear models to plot and predict change,
whereas others have utilised multiple curve estimation methods based
on inverse, sigmoidal, quadratic, cubic, compound, logistic, growth
and exponential functions. The non linear models displayed closer
fits to the actual data and were used to predict performance changes
10's, 100's and 1000's of years into the future. Some models predicted
that in some events male and female times and distances would crossover
and females would eventually display superior performance to males.
Predictions using mathematical models based on pre-1996 athletics
and pre-1998 swimming performances were evaluated based on how closely
they predicted sprints and jumps, and freestyle swimming performances
for both male and females at the 2000 and 2004 Olympic Games. The
analyses revealed predictions were closer for the shorter swimming
events where men's 50m and women's 50m and 100m actual times were
almost identical to predicted times. For both men and women, as the
swim distances increased the accuracy of the predictive model decreased,
where predicted times were 4.5-7% faster than actual times achieved.
The real trends in some events currently displaying performance declines
were not foreseen by the mathematical models, which predicted consistent
improvements across all athletic and swimming events selected for
in this study.
KEY
WORDS: Swimming, athletics, olympic games, mathematical functions,
extrapolation.
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