Figure 3. Associations of physical activity pattern and total weekly MVPA with incident osteoarthritis. a, Cumulative risk of incident overall OA through 7.9 years of follow-up by physical activity pattern. b, Association between continuous total weekly MVPA and incident overall OA estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model with a natural cubic spline; the shaded area indicates the 95% CI and 150 min/week is the HR reference value. The spline model adjusted for age at accelerometer assessment, sex, ethnicity, education, Townsend deprivation index, smoking status, alcohol intake frequency, and BMI. c, HRs for WW and regularly active participants versus inactive participants from Cox proportional hazards models. Model 1 adjusted for age at accelerometer assessment, sex, and ethnicity. Model 2 additionally adjusted for education, Townsend deprivation index, and BMI. Model 3 additionally adjusted for smoking status and alcohol intake frequency. Inactive participants accumulated <150 min/week of MVPA. Among participants accumulating >=150 min/week, WW participants accumulated >=50% of total weekly MVPA on the two most active days, whereas regularly active participants accumulated <50% on those days. The activity pattern reference group was inactive. Incident overall OA was defined as the first recorded ICD-10 M15-M19 diagnosis during follow-up among participants without OA at baseline. Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; ICD-10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision; MVPA, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity; OA, osteoarthritis; WW, weekend warrior.